The magic number is 2.1 — the number of births per woman needed for a society to maintain its population, according to the National Institutes of Health.
The United States currently sits at an estimated 1.6 births per woman, ranking 137th in the world. Nine of the 10 countries with the highest birth rates are developing nations in Africa, led by Chad at nearly six children per woman. On the other end of the spectrum sits South Korea at only around 0.75 births per woman.
There’s no single cause behind high or low birth rates, but there are several common factors. According to Tasadduq Shervani, an Associate Professor at Southern Methodist University who specializes in declining birth rates, elements such as industrialization, access to birth control and the cost of raising a child all contribute.
“Above all, birth rates are influenced by the education of women,” Shervani said. “The early years of getting higher education and the first few years in the workforce heavily overlap with the biological clock for having children. There is simply less time for women to have children.”
In many developed nations, men and women participate almost equally in the labor force, which means fewer families will have someone staying home to raise children, often requiring payment for external childcare.
“It’s very expensive to raise children. Therefore, there is a disincentive to having large families,” History and Social Science Department Chair David Fisher said. “I have two kids. I come from a family of four. My mother comes from a family of ten. You can see that the size of the family has been getting smaller with each generation.”
As birth rates decline, modern societies and economies are adjusting to a shrinking workforce for the first time, which could have adverse effects.
“We are now facing a situation in which we will not have enough workers and consumers in the global economy as a result of declining birth rates,” Shervani said. “It’s bringing about a complete 180 degree change in the way people think about the world’s future.”
A smaller workforce also means that there will be a time where the number of elderly and retired people surpasses the taxes paid by workers.
“A large number of older people places demands on social services, and there’s no money to support them because the tax base is low,” Fisher said. “That means that the government has to borrow money, but that puts pressure on the financial system by raising interest rates, which makes it difficult for other parts of the economy to grow, and, therefore, the economy stagnates.”
In response, governments across the world have tried various policies to encourage childbirth and ease the burden of raising children. Recently in the United States, President Donald Trump floated the idea of a $5,000 ‘Baby Bonus’ for American mothers in addition to existing child tax credits.
“Those incentives and policies have made a slight difference in increasing birth rates a bit, but, in no country have these policies succeeded to the extent that they have been able to reverse the decline,” Shervani said. “Things like maternity leave, making sure that (parents) have enough time (with their children) encourage more people to have babies because they are going to continue to be paid while they’re on leave.”
Historically in the U.S., the most effective solution has been immigration. An influx of foreign-born workers can supplement the lack of native-born workers.
“We’re not at a crisis point in this economy because of immigration,” Fisher said. “Up until the current administration, immigration was high and the foreign-born population was large, so we don’t have that choke point in the labor supply chain.”
But not all countries are welcoming immigration as a possible solution. Many factors, including cultural reactions, play a role in how open a country’s immigration policy is.
“Japan has historically been against immigration because they want to preserve Japanese culture,” Fisher said. “But there’s a trade off. You can preserve Japanese culture by ensuring that there are few people who immigrate into Japan, but the result will be a stagnant economy. In a place like the US, which is a more open society and our culture is more dynamic, we have less of a culture to preserve.”
Shervani believes that the best solution might be one of the simplest – make life easier for women and families.
“One thing we know will work is to make life easier for women and make it possible for them to have more children,” Shervani said. “I think what policymakers can do is really focus on making the world a better place for women and children.”
